My 2015 Oscar Predictions

The grand daddy and final award of the season is upon us on Sunday. Every year, I try to predict who I think will win (in the major categories) while I gripe about the winners being predictable. Well this year, despite a weak overall movie year, my prayers may have answered there are 3 categories that are up in the air. There are also 3 categories that are pretty much a lock. This might be the first time in some time that I am not quite confident about my choices because it’s up in the air and I wouldn’t have it any other way. I have read a lot of critics and insider predictions and nothing is consistent. It really is never about the performances alone so…

Here we go.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”), Laura Dern (“Wild”), Keira Knightley (“The Imitation Game”), Emma Stone (“Birdman”), Meryl Streep (“Into the Woods”)

My pick: Patricia Arquette. One of the three locks. I am one of those who liked Boyhood and whether or not she gave the best performance, these things aren’t always about that. She has won ALL the awards before this and I will be hella surprised if she doesn’t book end her awards with this.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Robert Duvall (“The Judge”), Ethan Hawke (“Boyhood”), Edward Norton (“Birdman”), Mark Ruffalo (“Foxcatcher”), J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”)

My pick: J.K Simmons. The second of the locks, he has won everything before this. Robert Duvall is the quintessential Oscar nominee and we know how they love to reward time in the business but I will be surprised if he is called. Hell, I was surprised he got this name.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Marion Cotillard (“Two Days, One Night’), Felicity Jones (“The Theory of Everything”), Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”), Rosamund Pike (“Gone Girl”), Reese Witherspoon (“Wild”)

My pick: Julianne Moore. In what I think is the weakest category, there’s really not much to say. Julianne Moore got this and all there is to say really. She’s a bad ass actress so I am not mad at that.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (“American Sniper’), Steve Carell (“Foxcatcher”), Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Imitation Game”), Michael Keaton (“Birdman”), Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”)

My pick: Eddie Redmayne. Okay so I don’t have confidence in my pick, because one half of me completely thinks it’s going to Michael Keaton. For some reason, these Hollywood people are so attracted to the Michael Keaton character (and or Michael Keaton himself) that even if they think someone else did a better job, it’s still a Keaton win for them. Yes, Eddie was playing someone else and had a model to emulate but what he did was no easy feat and he had the best performance for me. Word on the street though is that this split vote between the two might end up with a surprise win for Bradley Cooper. I’d rather have a surprise win than be right so we’ll see. In the mean time, I am going with my heart and my weak faith.

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Wes Anderson (“The Grand Budapest Hotel”), Richard Linklater (“Boyhood”), Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu (“Birdman”), Bennett Miller (“Foxcatcher”), Morten Tyldum (“The Imitation Game”)

My pick: Richard Linklater. Guys as much as Birdman puzzled me, I can’t deny the single take work of Inarritu. There’s also the Birdman momentum. And the fact that Inarritu got the DGA award. Sigh, I am torn! I still will follow my heart and go with Linklater. At the end of the day, people are still enamored with the 12 year thing with Boyhood and a concept that has never been done before. Fingers crossed!

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: “American Sniper,” “Birdman,” “Boyhood,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “The Imitation Game,” “Selma,” “The Theory of Everything,” “Whiplash”

My pick: Birdman. That pained me to say because I really just want to yell out Boyhood. Which would be my pick in a perfect world but I am going against my heart with this one. They won the SAG and everyone won’t shut up about this movie. If they do give Linklater this will be the compensation a la Argo where Affleck was not nominated for director but they won best picture. Still hope Boyhood wins though!

Okay guys…these are my picks. Don’t come back and point and laugh at me. Do you have any thoughts? See you at the Oscars. Don’t forget to follow @taynementdotcom come Oscar day (Sunday, Feb.21) for red carpet pictures and commentary.

 

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